Perry Glasser

Archive for the ‘Economy’ Category

TOUGH TARIFFS

In Business, Economics, Economy, Political Economy, ROBERT REICH on March 9, 2018 at 2:15 pm

This is about jobs, real jobs, not service economy jobs, not digital economy jobs, not jobs that require mortgaging one’s life for a fortune in educational debt, but high-paying jobs that can be performed by anyone with a strong back and will.

screwed1

Citizen

Tariffs are one of those simple topics every Citizen should understand but the Powers That Be (PTB) have designed American education to make the topic obscure and seem arcane, the better to screw Citizens.

Dollar$ once again finds himself with his standard disclaimer, declaring that President Donald Trump is a boorish lout, but that another of his economic policies make great sense.  We did not elect a Pope.

Readers who find that distinction difficult are advised to read no further. One can always turn to Professor Robert Reich, the former Secretary of Labor who, like Napoleon on Elba, gazing to the far-off corridors of power he expected to walk with Hillary Clinton, declares himself to be the leader of what he calls The Resistance, which may be an insult to the Free French of WW2 or an homage to the Star Wars futuristic fantasies. Professor Reich, too, longs for a galaxy far, far away and offers all the bias confirmation anyone can stomach.

robert reich

NOT A RESISTANCE FIGHTER

But Dollar$ revels in the here and now among realities.

TARIFFS

Do be sure, a tariff is simply a tax on designated imports, in today’s news the imports in question are steel and aluminum.

Weasel-Republicans reflexively clutch at their hearts and gasp for breath at the word “tax.” What’s this? A Republican president has raised taxes!!! Is he mad???

They clutch at their hearts because the Buccaneers who write the large checks that buy Weasel-Republicans may be displeased. Nothing terrifies a Weasel more than a situation than an ambivalent issue that calls for voting with conscience. They have no conscience—they have opinion polls. When opinion polls are closely divided, Weasels go mute.

buccaneerDevoted to profit and personal enrichment, Buccaneers expect to get what they pay for, especially those Weasel-Republican members of Congress who need their money to run for office and keep them in healthcare for life, periodic international fact-finding junkets, and provides them prestige among the naive.

Gifted with a vision that equates American purpose with their own, many Buccaneers fear tariffs. If their supply chain becomes more expensive, they may make less profit, though Dollar$ readers should by now understand that Buccaneers never pay taxes at all; they pass along taxes price increases.

Price increases are paid by you and me, Citizens.

What, you expected Buccaneers will accept less money? What are you smoking; why don’t you share?

TRUMP’S TARIFF

Start by knowing that in 2016 China produced about 50 percent of the world’s steel. (Figures are from the World Steel Association report of 2017). At the same moment in time, the US, Mexico, and Canada COMBINED, produced less than 10 percent.  The trend over the prior decade was Chinese growth and NAFTA decline.

In real life terms, that means Citizens in Indiana and Pittsburgh no longer have the option of a high-paying job in a steel mill; those jobs are gone to places where labor accepts a fraction of what an American expects hard labor to pay, and, in the case of China is substantially subsidized.

Could it be that the President is fulfilling a campaign promise? America First? Working people’ well-being? Leveling an uneven playing field?

Terrified Weasels, Buccaneers, and professional intellectuals point at retaliatory trade wars.

Yellow Mongoose

This Weasel is really a mongoose in disguise.

Pooh.

The trade balance for years has been negative and growing ever more negative—the US imports far more than it exports. Retaliatory tariffs will, in the end, punish the greater exporter—and that ain’t us.

BOTTOM LINE

Dollar$ says, “It’s about time.”

The same professional intellectuals who bemoan that job creation in America means nothing but burger-flipping need to stand up for working men and women.

 

 

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WALL STREET PERVERSITY

In Business, Economy, EDUCATION, Finance, FINANCE FOR THE CLUELESS, Politics, Wall Street on February 9, 2018 at 5:26 pm

Dollar$ notes again that the financial community seems to be insane. Buccaneers and Wizards confound the simple Citizen who needs a money harbor other than a pillowcase. Until someone invents bedding that pays interest or dividends, that is likely to be a bad idea.

screwed1

Citizen

You may have read that the markets are down because of too much good news.

It’s true.

January 2018 saw a market run-up of breathtaking scope. The Weasel-in-Chief was smugly taking credit and taking Olympic Gold for World’s Worst Comb-over (Orange Division). Kids on the street were selling their bicycles and holding bake sales to pick up some bitcoin, wait a day or two, and then cash in expecting in a day or two to have enough money to buy a private Caribbean island that would be closed to those short-sighted ever-selfish Baby Boomers who ruined the Earth by inventing cell phones, expanding civil rights, and creating cheap birth control that begat Hook-Up culture, all while stupidly neglecting to shape a world where no one would have to work.

Mean or what?

WHEN GOOD NEWS IS BAD NEWS

The good news that rattled the markets is that more people are working and that the people working are earning more money. Wall Street, naturally, near soiled its underwear.

The bad news was that many people persist in believing that economies are a zero-sum game. If the notion of I win, you lose! rules the markets, what could be more awful than Citizens getting a bigger piece of the pie?

More people, more jobs, more money, that’s bad.

R-i-i-i-i-i-ight.

 

CITIZENS & TUMBLING STOCKS

In Business, Economics, Economy, EDUCATION, Finance, FINANCE FOR THE CLUELESS, Personal Finance, Politics, ROBERT REICH, SOCIAL MEDIA, Wall Street on February 5, 2018 at 7:27 pm
jimmy-stewart

investor

Dollar$ readers have asked for a comment on the recent path of stocks falling off a cliff. Though Dollar$ seldom references perturbations in the market, in this case he will make an exception because any number of people with brains of tapioca or in possession of advanced degrees will point to this event to declare it political, a referendum of sorts on Donald Trump for whom they hold unsustainable rage.

 

THE AXE OF RAGE 

Rage as a political stance is unsustainable because it consumes its object as well as those who revel in it. We grind that axe at our own peril.

That won’t bother pundits such as Robert Reich at Berserkely. Expect his gloating to surface in a day or two while his cadre of unsalaried graduate student do his work for him.

After all, Reich persuaded thousands of Facebook followers that Spring rain, the demotion of Pluto from planet to rock and back again, and your most recent dose of athlete’s foot, were all ploys by the rich to separate you from your money because there is no bottom to the depth of their greed. (Except for St. George Soros, who sends wheelbarrows of Canadian cash to political causes in the United States out of simple generosity, something that most of us would find curious if the cash came from Outer Slobbovia or Russia.) The Professor has yet to mention the President’s promise to go after Big Pharma or his championing “the right to try” to give the sick access to medications stalled in the FDA’s long system for approval. How could Reich do so? His followers might dial back their rage, and then who’d buy the Professor’s books, subscribe to his videos on Netflix, or line up to enroll in his one class per year in a lecture hall packed with the beneficiaries of privilege, those students at Berserkeley who on cue wildly applaud before marching to deny free speech to someone else?

To be sure, Professor Reich will neglect to mention that the trillions lost on world markets in the past few business days have mostly been lost by the rich. Who did you think owned the shares of companies? Your barber?

Also, make certain you know, that Dollar$ believes our President to be at base a lout, a racist, sexist, and probably a compulsive adulterer who happened to revolutionize American politics by seizing on social media as a means to create a bridge between himself and voters when his own party and the American press gave him all the chances of a balloon in a pin factory.

Benjamin-Franklin-U.S.-$100-bill

Chastity?

None of that, by the way, makes him unfit to join the ranks of John Kennedy, Franklin Roosevelt, Dwight Eisenhower, or Bill Clinton. There were many others; the folks who brag about zero tolerance for white male sin remain eager to rewrite history by expunging ordinary men from the presidential rolls. God help us if they figure out what the Founders did with their time when separated from spouses for months, and that rascal, Benjamin Franklin, was not know for his chastity.

Fortunately, The Donald did not run for Pope.

STOCKS

Dollar$ is happy to report the sky has not fallen, at least not in my neighborhood. If Jemima Puddleduck races past your front door, Dollar$ urges you to unwrap that shotgun you received as a gift from Grandpa. Go bag yourself an inexpensive cheap chicken dinner.

Responsible financial advisers will tell you to do nothing: Dollar$ agrees, unless you have a working crystal ball in which case Dollar$ would appreciate a call. All the elephants could not get through the door without the house collapsing. That’s what happened today.elephants

DECISIONS

What now? Better to ask: Where would your money be better off?

The world economy is peachy.

The American economy is also peachy, showing healthy signs of continued growth.

Do not confuse the economy with the stock markets. After a run-up of 21% in a year, market algorithms were bound to get nervous.  (Algorithms don’t properly get nervous, but the notion of market sentiment is a joke when upwards of 90 percent of all market transactions are conducted by computers.)

The American economy is in danger of suffering wage-inflation. Prices will rise because Joe Doakes, his cousin Joe Six-Pack, and their cousin, Jane Doe, are earning more.

O, the Horror! What will Reich say if people are earning more?  What fraud is being perpetrated that will need a decade to play out?

RELAX

The past week has seen a drop of 5 percent. More is coming.

Bear in mind that historically, a 7 percent gain in a year is good news. If after the carnage we saw today and can expect for a few more days your 401-k, your kids’ 509, and your savings ratchet back to a “mere” 12% annual gain, try not to swoon.

Stay  the course. There are bulls, there are bears, and there are pigs. People who try to time the market—that is, sell now with the hope and expectation of buying it all back when things have settled—are pigs , and like pigs will be slaughtered.

THE GOOD NEWS

In Business, Economics, Economy, Political Economy, ROBERT REICH, SOCIAL MEDIA, TAXES on January 6, 2018 at 1:10 pm

SOCIAL MEDIA STARS -TWOFER

Dollar$ like to imagine the column is the counterpoint to the tsunami of illogic and disinformation that rises in the far off muddled oceans and then inundates us all. Good news rarely makes it into major media. Social media is more iffy, but the War for Clicks devolves into imagery of Fluffy the Cat or Adolph Hitler because as long as there is no middle ground, panic, disgust, and self-pity rules the day.

Good News

  • Though legions of the self-righteous were quick to announce they had to leave the country because of The Orange One’s election, they are still here. Yes, that is good news. This is America, and in America when an election result does not confirm your convictions you are obliged to learn something and, if so inclined, try again. (Go Joe!  Joe Biden that is.)
  • Urban murder rates in the US are the lowest they have been since 1990. That’s hard to notice on the Left where shrill accusations of American racism serve as a touchpoint for activism no matter how distant the cry lies from Truth.
  • The stock market is at an all-time high. Again, the Left wants you to believe that lives are being crushed by corporate America when, in fact, more than half of all American workers have 401-k accounts whose returns have been staggering in the past 2 years. Will there be a correction?  Of course. So what? Stay the course; grow rich sloooooowly.
  • Unemployment rates are so low that wages are rising. If employers want hands, eyes, or brains, they have to bid for them. Cynics question the motives of organizations that have perceived the 2018 tax cut as an occasion to raise minimum wage and to give low-level workers raises.   No one, however, has yet demanded that workers scorn the new money in their wallets. Dollar$ suggests the true cause is a worldwide growing economy.
  • Your take-home pay starting in February will be higher. If you are on salary, You get to keep more or what you earn. Robert Reich* and other progressives who lack a program beyond, “I’m against it!”  are at pains to remind us that this is really a profound plot to transfer wealth from your pocket to the pockets of the rich. Dollar$, however, suggests you buy a better Pinot. Should the tax law need to be adjusted, it will be. After all, if tax law were shaped in brittle concrete, how did it get changed this year?

* Professor Reich continues to redefine chutzpah by not only telling citizens his work is vital to the program-free Resistance, but by asking us to pay to see that vital message on Netflix. This is akin to expecting members of the maquis before they were strangled with piano wire to have passed a hat to continue their vital anti-Nazi work and expecting the SS to look on benignly before beginning any torture.
All right, maybe they’d pass a beret.

REICH AND THE RESISTANCE

In Economy, Politics, ROBERT REICH, SOCIAL MEDIA on December 28, 2017 at 2:14 pm

Dollar$ apologizes for departing from its usual mission to analyze finance and instead articulate a political opinion. Lord know we don’t need another internet opinion, opinions being like rear ends—everyone has one, and everyone is sure theirs looks and smells better than anyone else’s.  But it is time Professor Robert Reich be called out. Enough is enough, and in this case enough is too much.

Professor Reich professes at U Cal Beserkely where California in 2016 paid him $263,000 to teach a class or two each year—that’s about $25,000 per lecture. That arduous duty is assisted by graduate students, also paid for by the U Cal system. That leaves the former Secretary of Labor plenty of time for speaking engagements at $40,000 a pop.

It’s not hard to be productive if you have a crew of graduate teaching assistants in your personal blog mill. Professor Reich produces 3 to 5 social media posts and short videos per day  and peddles a series of lectures on Netflix.

He lectures on wealth inequality in America.

Dollar$ is not waiting for the professor to start turning back his salary to Californians.

Professor Reich had high expectations that he’d return to the corridors of power with the elevation of Hillary Clinton to the presidency. That presumption afflicted plenty of coastal intellectuals who thereby fumbled the election by neglecting to campaign in several swing states such as Ohio and Wisconsin, places former President Obama won, twice.

In Reich’s case, the shock of loss has precipitated two responses:

  • Reich wrote a book called Saving Capitalism, which at his levels of compensation suggests the question “Save it for whom?”
  • Reich has positioned himself as the leader of The Resistance, the enemy being President Trump.

In the pictures above, can you guess, which is the real resistance fighter?

Dollar$ is no fan of Donald Trump, who in his personal history proves himself to be a lout and whose public utterances and Twitter-babble are a national embarrassment.

That said, Dollar$ points out to Reich and others that history is non-malleable fact (except at universities where professors who scoff at notions of “fake news” also posit that we live in a world where Truth is a matter of perspective).  Importantly, History is not a metaphor. That stuff happened to real people, and it was often less than pretty.

No one doubts that all internet arguments devolve into comparisons to Hitler, but until Professor Reich and other “resistors” show evidence that American citizens in the 21st century are being tortured and strangled with loops of piano wire, can we hope to no longer see a reference to the Resistance in WW2?

It’s not fun; it’s not persuasive; it’s not appropriate. And other than being a hope concerned citizens will send Professor Reich a few bucks, Reich’s Resistance has absolutely no program.

All the posture does is insult brave men and women whose sacrifice and courage should not be trampled for a cheap political point.

 

TAXE$ AND COMMON CENT$

In Business, Economics, Economy, Finance, Personal Finance, Political Economy, Politics, TAXES on December 21, 2017 at 4:24 pm
bert-lahr-imdb-630x459

SCHOLAR OF THE SUBJUNCTIVE

Dollar$ resents and excoriates finance writers who write in the subjunctive mood. For readers who stopped paying attention to their English teachers in the 8th grade, that means a statement that is conditional. Correctly constructed, the sentiment expresses and a condition that is either not yet true, will never be true, or the speaker wishes were true followed by an outcome that is also not true.

 

If this be treason, make the most of it! – Patrick Henry

In our times, the greatest use of the subjunctive mood is for Romance, handy for lovers unwilling to commit but nevertheless compelled to express what resides in their hearts. Is there a better love song than If I Loved You?

Many speakers flummox the niceties of this important use of mood, and while it is not Dollar$ purpose today to deliver a grammar lesson, he earnestly hopes readers will be afflicted with the dry heaves should they come across ersatz prophets who preserve deniability and protect their alleged expertise by abusing the subjunctive mood. Yes, the stock market may go up, a bold prediction that allows deniability. It may also go down. Dollar$ also notes in passing that Patrick Henry was not speaking archaic English when he addressed the Virginia House of Burgesses, but was properly employing the subjunctive mood of the verb to be. If you still don’t get it, consider that the Cowardly Lion of Oz fame sings “If I were King of the Forest.” Now you know why Bert Lahr never sang was.

THE 2017 TAX BILL

chicken-little-sky-is-falling-1a

SOCIAL MEDIA EXPERT

Dollar$ has until now said zero about the proposed tax bill because it was proposed. Details were open to negotiation. That, however, did not prevent the doyens of social media to claim the sky was falling and suggest that passage of the tax bill would end civilization as we know it.

FACTS IS FACTS

The corporate tax rate has dropped from 35% to 21%. Lest you read Robert Reich, the former Secretary of Labor so startled he is not advising Hillary Clinton in the White House that he has taken to Facebook to lead “The Resistance,” let’s note that despite Professor Reich this tax cut is does not pick the pockets of the poor to give money to the rich. After all, 35% of nothing remains nothing, not coincidentally the amount of taxes paid by Apple Computer and many other multinational American-based companies that have disincentives to bring their profits back to American shores.  The new tax law is a hope to repatriate funds, an overdue program first called for by John F. Kennedy. Short version: US corporate taxes now align with the rest of the industrialized world.

Apple and other corporations can bring billions back to our shores and suffer no financial penalty for doing so. The Tax Policy Center noted in 2014, “Despite its relatively high corporate tax rate, the United States raises slightly less revenue from corporate income taxes as a share of GDP than the average of other countries.”

TRICKLING.4.19.1-figure2_0
Facebook economists who took time from photographing their cats and their breakfast (or cats having breakfast) have been told repeatedly that Trickle-Down Economics does not trickle.  Dollar$, however, notes that several organizations have as of this morning announced raises for line workers and hikes in their minimum wage. Dollar$ is certain those responses are due to more than a rosy picture of future profits precipitated by a tax cut. Fact is, labor is getting scarce; like other valued assets, if you want to keep trained and skilled workers, you have to pay for them. That’s how markets work.

The Koch brothers may have a social agenda, but Facebook economists smugly predicting that the new tax codes will so reduce revenue that Social Security and Medicare will have to be sharply reduced may want to note that neither of those programs is funded out of general revenues but from separate trusts funds. That’s why your annual pay stub has separate boxes for Medicare and Social Security, Binky. They ain’t general revenues. Dollar$ bids good luck to any weasel who lays a hand on those monies, but since the first rule of weasel life is to remain a weasel, Dollar$ is losing no sleep over that possibility.

Similar dire predictions about how the poor will suffer because so many itemized deductions are now disallowed stagger Dollar$ for the hypocrisy or ignorance of how taxes work.

Itemized deductions are

  • also known as loopholes
  • seldom used by citizen taxpayers who do not own a home

LITTLE OLD LADY WHO LIVED IN A SHOE

woman-livedinashoe

TAX PLAN BENEFICIARY

The Little Old Lady who lived in a Shoe had so many children she did not know what to do will, if she itemizes, will get $2,000 per kid where she used to get $1,000. Unless her shoe is worth more than $750,000, her mortgage interest will remain a deduction. Chances are, however, since more than 60% of all taxpayers already use the Standard Deduction, the Little Old Lady will avail herself of that tax simplification because the SD has near doubled. That is, should she choose to itemize, she’d be a damned fool to do so unless he has more than $24,000 in deductions, something highly unlikely for any who works for wages.Look, that redoubtable working family never paid taxes anyway, and at year’s end looked forward to cashing a tax refund check, the sum of all that withholding tax. Under the new tax plan, her refund will indeed be less because week to week and month to month the Fed will be withholding less of her money. Maybe she can build an addition on the shoe, a playroom in the heel, perhaps.

If any of her kids are planning college, despite the dire warnings of Facebook economists, the deductibility of tuition remains untouched.

So do her medical costs above a certain level—the same as the way things are now.

FLIES IN THE OINTMENT

Okay, Dollar$, a few of you still awake might ask what happens by 2028? Don’t these individual tax breaks phase out? That’s when we’ll be screwed, right?

Dollar$ asks the professional pessimists where it is written that a Congress controlled by Democrats in, say 2024, can’t tweak or change tax law? We change appropriations annually (it’s called a budget).

That is to say, Binky, if you think it is in your best interest, vote your convictions, but stop screaming like Chicken Little. Dollar$, you pestiferous fool, this tax law will raise the deficit!! We are going to hell in a handcart!” (Be careful though, you may start to sound like a Republican advocating fiscal responsibility.)

We have for a decade endured GDP growth in the 2% range, and we hunger for greater. Three percent is not unreasonable; up around 4% you can get a nosebleed and bet we are losing ground to inflation. But should the economy grow more quickly than it has, the deficit goes down. Bill Clinton demonstrated that by riding out Ronald Reagan’s tax cuts.

A country near 100% employment can afford a few risks, and if for a few years we put money in the hands of citizens, should we sweat it?

 

 

$$$

TREES DON’T GROW TO THE SKY or WHY RHETORIC WILL LEAVE YOU BANKRUPT

In Business, Economy, Finance, FINANCE FOR THE CLUELESS, Personal Finance, Wall Street on December 17, 2017 at 2:11 pm

Simple Truths

  • The stock market neither advances nor retreats–though prices indeed go up and down.
  • For every buyer, there is a seller.
  • When buyers and sellers agree to prices, they set asset values.
  • Buyers buy with the expectation of future profit; sellers sell when they believe continued ownership of an asset constitutes a risk no longer commensurate with possible reward.
  • No one in a free market is under compulsion.
  • Wall Street is neither a battleground for territory, nor  an adversarial contest.
  • It’s a market.

Wizards require small investors to believe that generals understand the battlefield and so deserve your trust and your fees because they otherwise have nothing to sell.  Internet access to mutual funds, closed-end funds (CEF) and  exchanged traded fund (ETF) has made giving professional advice a media game.

Sell newsletters, attract viewers, collect advertising dollars.  You need not be wise or even right. Scare the piss out of customers, and they come back anyway, thrilled that you were wrong. If God-forbid the doom-saying prognosticators prove to be right, customers will come back chastened and ready to listen.

Market Sentiment

Basically, after getting in the game buy buying 3 to 5 broadly diversified vehicles, you should do nothing. In 2017, if you followed that strategy, so far you are making a mere 20%. Since the vast majority of investing operations on Wall Street are performed by networked machines that monitor every price tick and move great mountains of capital for millions of worldwide financial vehicles, there is no human sentiment involved.

When you as a small investor get the news of sharp price movement, it is too late to act, unless you think and make decisions at light speed and are plugged directly into markets.

  • Machines do not agonize over decisions such as Buy, Sell or Hold.
  • Machines have no hearts. Machines do not succumb to sentiment. Machines do not read the newspapers.
  • Machines do not hold on to send their kids to college.
  • Machines do not save pennies to accrue the down payment on a house.

Nevertheless modern Wizards want us to believe market sentiment exists and that t hey are plugged into that sentiment.

Yeah. Sure. Right. Got it. Roger that.

How do TV Wizards get away with recommending buying or selling new assets every day?

kramer7

Sells perpetual panic and urgency

The fact is that while our money trickles into pension funds, 401ks, college funds, health insurance funds, and all the rest of the vehicles invented by Wizards to lure us with illusions of safety in an uncertain world, machines–owned assets are being sold.  There’s a buyer for every seller, Binky. Remember that.

Machines sell in torrents. We pray for 7 to 10 percent each year, are happy to get 3%, but when the algorithms indicate “Sell,” prices drop 20 to 50 percent in minutes.
Sentiment? Level playing field?

A Warning

Dollar$ is aware that sharp price moves can be precipitated by events and non-events such as national elections. If you think the US is going to hell in a handcart, do you also believe that after crap hits the fan that the money you buried in the backyard will buy a can of tuna?

This is why reasoned investors await blood on the floor before buying, and unless you are within 5 years of a financial goal–retirement, your kid’s first year of college, that down payment on your house–sit tight, never sell.

  • Buy and hold.
  • Ignore alleged “corrections.”
  • Sleep at night.

ZERO-SUM TAX POLICY

In Business, Economics, Economy, Political Economy, Politics, TAXES on December 12, 2017 at 12:52 pm

Five players sit down to play cards, poker for example. Each brings $100 to the table, and because of a peculiar tradition of the Dollar$ Casino, no player is allowed to introduce additional money into the game. If one player has sufficient skill, after some time that player will have $500 and the other four players will have $0.

That’s a zero-sum game.

In the social realm, that’s another way of saying that no player can be allowed to accrue more wealth without a second player becoming poorer.

This is assuredly NOT how the economy works, nor can it be the basis of Tax Policy. Perhaps for the simple-minded who find their checkbook to be an overwhelming problem in higher math, but let’s hope that political and economic policy are not tailored for the least able among us.

THE ZERO-SUM ECONOMY3032348.large

In reality, players in a card game can bring welcome new money to the table by:

  • dipping into a vault where old money has been snoozing,
  • innovating when some whippersnapper creates new
    • logistics (drone delivery, anyone?),
    • desirable products (cats do love their roomba rides),
    • organizational efficiencies that squeeze every nickel out of every process

On the Left, the “I don’t got it and you do so you must give it up” social justice warriors are out there, demanding that your children have to split up shares of an ever-shrinking pie. On the Right, the tax proposal now undergoing reconciliation between the House and Senate limits Research and Development tax (R&D) credits out of some misguided effort to cast a political illusion of “fairness.”  Fairness in tax policy usually means “the other guy should pay more.”

Dollar$ readers with a lick of sense will see this for what it is—an attempt to disallow new money to be brought into the game. Dollar$ is no champion of trickle-down economics, but hopes we can all acknowledge that faith in the future is not blind faith, but a realistic assessment of economic history. If it were not, Malthus would have been right and we’d all have become cannibals by now.

AN OBJECT LESSON

Twenty years ago, the world was supposed to be out of oil by now. Petroleum cartels (OPEC) were supposed to have sucked up all the money in the world. An entire genre of popular films was developed depicting a desert world where fuel was so scarce that warlords took women, water, and weapons based on how much fuel they could steal. Mad Max was a nightmare born of shortages and the lurid fantasies of adolescent boys.

If tax policy had been based on that scenario, and gasoline taxed to conserve an ever-diminishing resource, the cost of gasoline would today be sky-high instead of the roughly adjusted for inflation stable price of the past 25 years – the sole exception being those years when OPEC states manipulated prices by manipulating supply under the false impression that no innovation could ever occur—which it did.

OPEC’s hold on the world economy was busted by hybrid cars and oil from shale extraction coupled with the discovery of 80% of the world’s accessible shale in the United States. It may not be clean and it may not be pretty, but after the picketing is done, you can be sure some whippersnapper will find a way to make it prettier and cleaner.

THE R&D TAX CREDIT

Let’s keep the whippersnappers in business!

 

 

 

 

WHINING – A HOW-TO FOR MILLENNIALS

In Business, Economy, Political Economy, Politics on December 9, 2017 at 2:26 pm

One of the more frequent themes Dollar$ reads on social media is the ongoing complaint that the generation born between 1945 and 1970, those rotten Baby Boomers, are a bunch of louts who deliberately loused up the economy for everyone who came after them. Selfishness is something you develop by smoking weed through a bhang and

HENDRIX

SELFISH BABY BOOMER

listening to Jimi Hendrix. If they would all only die, housing would be cheap and jobs would open, easy, high-paying jobs with benefits that require no experience.

This theory explains why that kid who lives in your basement on a three-legged couch incessantly watches pornography on his cellphone. All the jobs out there are soul-sucking crushes, fruitless and stupid wastes of time. Even looking for that job is a waste of time. Fixing the couch isn’t worth the trouble, either. Glue? Nails? It’s all too complicated.

Facts

Facts only obstruct a good theory, but Dollar$ is not yet of the party that deems feelings should be the basis of policy because facts are no more than the legacy of the dying culture called Western Civilization, but our hearts never err and can only lead us to a better world. As Donald Trump and deconstructionist professors have taught us, facts are relative.

However, some facts are numbers.

  • In November 2017, the US economy created 228,000 new jobs
  • The jobless rate for non-high school graduates is 5.2%
  • The jobless rate for the overall US economy is 4.1%, the lowest it has been since the dot-com bubble burst in 2000.
  • After years of lackluster growth of 2%, the economy is now growing at nearly 3%, a pace that means business expansion will require ever more new employees and—gasp—will need to pay entry-level employees well to compete for their heads and hands.
(figures from The Wall Street Journal, Dec 9, 2017)

By the way, Dollar$ also notes that the economic expansion these figures suggest is worldwide. The stock market is soaring because that confidence in the future is shared most everywhere. If Finance Buccaneers don’t screw it up by inventing products that have no basis in reality and then leverage that fantasy 100-fold before selling those vehicles to municipal retirement accounts, regional banks, and other suckers, your BitCoin Futures, for example, we are in for some good years.

Good news upsets ideologues who prefer to complain about their ongoing, constant anxiety even though that anxiety, at least in the economic sphere, is misplaced. Sure, things can go wrong, and eventually will, but the quality of life has never grown in a straight line. When things suck, wait a while. They will turn around. You don’t really need to check under the bed each night.

For example, Robert Reich, the Beserkely professor, former Secretary of Labor, and Facebook columnist, checks under the bed three to four times each day with columns and videos. His trauma at not being reintroduced to the corridors of power when Hillary Clinton failed to be elected must have been acute. Instead of running the world, he is on the sidelines where he generates a tsunami of media whose final point is that whomever is doing whatever, Professor Reich could do it better. He has the time to do this because California pays him in excess of $400,000 per year, requires him to teach no more than one or two classes, pays the salaries of a cadre of graduate students to assist him with his onerous work, collects $40,000 for speaking engagements, and has published a book called Saving Capitalism, which, if Dr. Reich’s situation were typical, would seem to need no saving at all.

At least not for him.

Baby Boomer Failures

  • The safe and cheaply available birth control that makes hook-up culture possible on that basement couch, thus eroding the moral fiber of our culture.
  • The internet that delivers porn directly to the basement couch.
  • The virtual elimination of several diseases, such as polio and smallpox.
  • The virtual elimination of famine because of advances in agriculture and the successful world distribution of crops like winter wheat.
  • The Civil Rights Movement of the 1960s.
  • The Women’s Rights Movement that began again in the 1970s.
  • Passenger jets. How else can a Millennial go backpacking in Nepal before taking residence on the sofa?
  • Cell phones, that device that permits Millennials to snap selfies, cat photos, and up-to-the minute data on any Millennial’s location should they venture from the basement, all forms of narcissism previously never seen on our planet.
  • Digital special effects that bring believable visions of world apocalypse and intergalactic warfare to that cell phone or the game box beside the couch facing the flat screen TV on which HD pornography plays most of the day.
  • The rising preponderance of women in higher education as students, teachers, and administrators.
  • Automobiles that cost more because they are built to new standards of safety, airbags, seatbelts, and the like for passengers who strangely wish to live through collisions. Those doodads are constructed with materials other than steel to keep vehicles lightweight enough to conserve fuel. slow global warming, preserve energy, and keep that basement comfy.

Why are These Failures?

Dollar$ is glad you asked.

The work, you see, is not yet done. Those damn Boomers selfishly left the world imperfect. Some kids may have to get off the couch and build better infrastructure, get us renewable energy sources, find better batteries, silence jet engines, create hologram entertainment, and take the US out of rubber, concrete, and petroleum logistics.

You know, work and innovate.

Effort sucks.

Totally.
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Tulips and BitCoins

In Business, Economics, Economy, EDUCATION, Finance on December 7, 2017 at 9:00 pm

Tulips

In 1636, Holland discovered the tulip. They were imported. People went crazy for them. Everybody wanted them. No one could get enough of them, and the more rare they seemed, the more valuable they became. The cost of tulip futures for some bulbs rose to prices worth more than 20 acres of land. I am not making this up.

It’s easy to laugh, but open your closet and count your Beanie Bag Babies stash. How many collectibles have you bought recently? Holy bananas, have you been buying fake money and stamps with baseball players on them from small Caribbean states as family heirlooms?!?

But God forbid, have you considered BitCoins?

The Wizards on Wall Street are fainting. They notice that Bitcoin rose above $15,000 this week, and is up from $800 a year ago.  Remember, always that Wall Street Wizards invest in nothing, but they want a piece of every transaction. They earn profits when money changes hands, and if that is when your kid’s college education turns to dust, well, that’s a shame.

BitCoins are an imaginary currency backed by the full faith and credit of nothing, not nobody, not nohow.  The dollar, on the other hand, is a currency backed by the full faith and credit of the United States, which Dollars$ admits may not be all that much more, but has to be worth more than a few beeps and blips on some kid’s garage in a Tokyo sub-basement. Sorry, Binky, but the gold in Fort Knox has not been seen for decades. Every bill in your American wallet is a promise to pay–later.

The US dollar is also the standard for several other currencies, small countries, mostly, that cannot risk having speculators manipulate their money. In  the currency markets where money floats, the US dollar is relatively stable.  On the other hand, people who invest in Bitcoins either live too far from a decent casino or think Monopoly money is tricky stuff. They plan on being the last person through the exit when the inevitable collapse occurs, but do you know what happens when all the elephants try to get through the door at the same time?

BitCoin is the preferred currency among drug dealers and computer hijackers, those rascals who are the cousins to that Nigerian prince who offer you millions if you’ll send just a few thousand. The Prince makes that offer by email; the BitCoin pirates fly the Jolly Roger  while sailing through cyberspace.

You get your choice.

bitcoin

look that them digits!

jolly roger